Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Toledo Football: Why the Rockets Won't Contend in the MAC

By Jack Jones


The Toledo Rockets were one of the preseason favorites to win the MAC last season, but a heartbreaking home loss to Northern Illinois late in the season squashed those chances. The Rockets and Huskies had identical 7-1 MAC records, but Northern Illinois won the tiebreaker, and eventually went on to win the conference championship game. Toledo finished the year with a 9-4 record beating Air Force 42-41 in the Military Bowl. Be sure to follow the odds and find expert picks on the Rockets this season and much more at Football Free Picks.

Head coach Tim Beckman has left the team to take a job at Illinois, leaving offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as the Rockets' new head coach. Cambell has his work cut out for him this season as only eight starters return from last season's squad.

Offense

The Rockets featured the top offense in the MAC last season, racking up a very impressive 42.2 points and 481 total yards/game. They were definitely one of the more exciting teams to watch in the entire country last year, but with only 4 starters coming back, Toledo will almost certainly take a step back offensively in 2012.

Amazingly enough, the Rockets return their top two quarterbacks from last season in junior Terrance Owens and senior Austin Dantin. These two regularly alternated possessions last year, but Owens will likely get more reps than Dantin simply because he is more productive.

Toledo suffers a big blow in the backfield as it loses its top two rushers from 2011 in Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams. The leading returning rusher is junior RB David Fluellen who will likely get the bulk of the touches this season.

The receiving corps loses star wideout Eric Page, who left early to join the NFL. This unit returns just one starter in junior Bernard Reedy, who will be the new go-to guy. Junior James Green and sophomore WE Cassius McDowell will step into starting roles, as will senior Illinois transfer TE Cordale Scott.

The offensive line loses three starters and 124 career starts, including first-team All-MAC LT Mike VanDerMuelen. With only two starters back and 24 career starts returning, the offensive line won't have a shot at matching last year's production. The two linemen coming back are second-team All-MAC C Zac Kerin and freshman All-American RG Greg Mancz.

Defense

While the offense was spectacular last year, Toledo's defense was one of the worst in the conference. They allowed 31.7 points and 402 yards per game. Only four starters return on this side of the ball, which may be a blessing in disguise if they can find better players at key positions.

The defensive line loses three productive starters, but brings back five of its top eight up front, including seven who have made 15 or more career tackles. The projected starting line-up will feature senior DE TJ Fatinikun, junior DE Christian Smith, junior DT Elijah Jones and senior DT Danny Farr.

The linebacker corps will be the strongest unit of the defense. They have their top two coming back in senior WLB Robert Bell and senior MLB Dan Mills. They've also added Michigan transfer Vladimir Emilien to take over at the STAR LB position.

The secondary must replace three solid defensive backs, including first-team All-MAC CB Desmond Morrow. They do have three players with starting experience coming back in the defensive backfield and after an abysmal showing last year, should only get better in 2012. Senior CB Byron Best moves from LB to add depth, and senior SS Jermaine Robinson is their top returnee. Talented Florida transfer sophomore CB Jordan Harden will start right away.

MAC West Prediction - 4th Place

This team has more talent than the eight returning starters would indicate. The offense at the very least has proven play makers at quarterback in Owens and Dantin. Their losses on the offensive end are at running back, receiver and along the offensive line. Despite the defense only having four starters back, this team should be more talented than its 2011 version. Toledo should be competitive in the MAC West, but unfortunately they must face both Western Michigan and Northern Illinois on the road. Both these teams are projected to finish ahead of the Rockets in the division.




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